Studies of Human Inference Using On-line Testing

Subjects will be shown a pair of jars each filled with the same absolute number but different ratios of red/blue balls. Three blocks of trials exist, short-term inference (subjects must identify which of the equally likely jars is currently in use), long-term inference (subjects must predict the subsequent jar in use on the next trial, where jar switches are correlated across trials), or multi-timescale inference (subjects must both report the current jar and predict the subsequent jar, combining the short and longterm inferences). Subjects will draw balls as many balls as they wish with replacement (free response) during the short-term and multi-timescale blocks but will know the current jar in use for long-term inference.